EVs, Connected Vehicles, and Digital Retailing, among other megatrends, may lead to a profit pool shift of 30 to 40 percent across the aftermarket value chain and reshape the competitive landscape in the next 10 to 20 years. What is your strategic roadmap?
Disruptive changes are ahead for the automotive aftermarket. These include evolving Customer Experience (CX), accelerated adoption of emerging tech (such as telematics and electrification), and shifts in market power. Value creation and revenue models in the auto parts industry will be fundamentally transformed by these disruptions. In mature markets like Europe and North America, market consolidation (M&A) will accelerate, and competition will intensify from tech entrants—for instance, digital-first players capturing share in the online auto parts space. In emerging markets, new consumer needs will emerge, pressuring aftermarket suppliers to innovate.
The rise of disruptive technology and accompanying market shifts compels aftermarket stakeholders to evaluate their strategic positioning to maintain competitive advantage in a volatile environment. Learning from past industry disruptions, we know that lacking a digital transformation strategy can lead to obsolescence not just for individual OEMs or distributors, but for entire sub-sectors. While experts agree on the magnitude of change, a holistic view of future automotive trends is still evolving.
The global automotive aftermarket size is currently valued at ~€800 billion and is projected to expand at a 3% CAGR to reach ~€1.2 trillion by 2030. In the coming decade, ten key trends—across three categories—will redefine the industry ecosystem.
These transformations drive three critical impacts: supply chain disruption, a Direct-to-Consumer (D2C) shift, and significant profit margin redistribution.
Value chain restructuring will be driven not only by incumbent OEMs but also by new market entrants. EV powertrain suppliers and Software-Defined Vehicle (SDV) tech firms will integrate upstream. Meanwhile, auto parts e-commerce platforms and digital marketplaces are disrupting traditional distribution models, while independent repair shops (IRs) face competition from niche service providers (e.g., EV-certified specialists or fleet maintenance hubs). Start-ups and incumbents alike are acting as platform aggregators, leveraging digital intermediation to connect end-users with mobility services.
The redesigned value chain enables real-time pricing transparency for consumers. New digital touchpoints empower tech entrants with direct customer acquisition channels, threatening to bypass traditional distributors and dealerships. Furthermore, customers increasingly rely on AI-driven diagnostics and predictive maintenance algorithms. Finally, demand is shifting from private ownership (B2C) to commercial fleet operations (B2B), driven by the rise of professional fleet managers in the aftermarket sector.
Consequently, profitability realignment will occur across supply chain tiers (see Exhibit 2).
Driven by electrification, connected vehicle technology, and online retailing, over €100 billion—representing 30–40% of total aftermarket profits—is projected for redistribution by 2030. These margin shifts will affect all industry stakeholders bidirectionally, depending on their strategic positioning within the evolving future mobility ecosystem.
Strategic Imperatives
We believe these market disruptions present every industry player with a clear mandate for strategic transformation. We suggest that all major supply chain partners take proactive initiatives to prepare for the evolving automotive landscape and capitalize on emerging opportunities.
1. OEMs: Secure Core Business & Strengthen IAM Presence
To protect market share and sales volume, OEMs must adopt a Customer Experience (CX)-first approach, enhancing customer segmentation and user engagement. Implementing omnichannel retailing strategies is critical to defending revenue against digital-native competitors. Shifting focus to high-growth markets is another key lever. As the parked car fleet age increases, OEMs must look beyond new vehicle sales and deepen their involvement in the Independent Aftermarket (IAM) sector.
2. Suppliers: Diversify Sales, Branding & Pricing Models
Auto parts suppliers should develop alternative distribution channels to enhance Direct-to-Consumer (D2C) access. Successful industry best practices include launching tiered pricing strategies with private label brands, pursuing vertical integration, or offering turnkey workshop solutions. Simultaneously, suppliers must counter competitive pressure and industry consolidation through strategic alliances with leading distributors or tech platforms, or by adopting multi-brand portfolios.
3. Distributors: Accelerate Digital Transformation
Embracing digitalization and predictive analytics is essential for incumbent distributors to avoid displacement by tech-driven entrants. A data-centric strategy includes optimizing B2B e-commerce platforms, leveraging big data insights, and participating in the digital marketplace ecosystem for customer data acquisition. Distributors must also select the right growth trajectory: smaller players should target profitable niche markets, while larger entities must pursue scale via M&A and organic expansion to maintain high entry barriers.
4. Workshops: Modernize for Technological Complexity
Investing in talent acquisition, technical upskilling (especially in ADAS and EV systems), and advanced diagnostic equipment is crucial for managing next-gen vehicle complexity. On the client side, workshops must enable a seamless digital service journey (e.g., online booking, remote diagnostics) while upgrading the physical service center experience to foster a new service mindset. Finally, repair shops must define clear competitive differentiation against franchise networks and chain stores.
A series of megatrends will significantly reshape the automotive aftermarket industry. It is now time for all value-chain stakeholders to execute strategic actions to define the future market landscape, ensure long-term competitiveness, and capture new revenue streams in untapped profit centers.
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